Methodology
The Institute of Meteorology and Climatology of the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU-Met) produced an ensemble of localized and bias corrected regional climate model scenarios for the Western Balkan region.
The ensemble is based on the newest available Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX experiments, running with the current RCP (representative concentration pathways) emission scenarios. The bias correction is based on the best free and open available observational data sets for each sub-region (e.g. CARPATCLIM, E-OBS, CHIRPS).
As a result of the literature research, Scaled Distribution Mapping (SDM) was chosen as the method for bias correction within the ClimaProof project.
The method, described in detail in the publication of (Switanek, M.B., Troch, P.A., Castro, C.L., Leuprecht, A., et al. (2017) Scaled distribution mapping: a bias correction method that preserves raw climate model projected changes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences) , is also used for the production of the OKS15 climate scenarios (see https://data.ccca.ac.at/group/oks15). It scales observed distributions by raw model projected changes in magnitude, rain-day frequency and likelihood of events (return period). This method was chosen because it is shown, that it conserves the climate change signal predicted by the underlying model. Compared to the other methods, SDM causes the least inflation or deflation to the raw projected mean change. Furthermore, no assumption of stationarity (= error correction values established in a calibration period can be applied to any time period within or outside the calibration time period) is made for bias correction.
Detailed information on the methods and data sources can be found in the documentation of the methodical background available for download, see below.
climaproof methodological background
